Friday, September 16, 2016

"Someone Just Placed A Massive Bet That The Solar City, Tesla Deal Fails" (SCTY; TSLA)

The headline is a bit deceptive as we don't know if the trader has either a long position in the stock they are dirty hedging or a synthetic long they are trading around. SCTY $17.28 up 18 cents  TSLA $205.40 up $4.98.
From ZeroHedge:

Following June's proposal, the merger of kissing-cousins TSLA and
SCTY was confirmed in early August. Since then, the market has begun to
aggressively price out

Ford Motor Company Moves Into Bicycle Sharing (F)

From SFGate:

Ford buys Chariot, makes bike-sharing deal in alt-transport push

Ford Motor Co. has seen the future — and it’s not just in cars.


“We want to change the way the world moves,” CEO Mark Fields said
Friday outside San Francisco City Hall, announcing plans for
bike-sharing and commuter shuttle services as Ford seeks to transform
itself into a broader transportation company.


The

For 13th Straight month, Rural Economies Slump In Creighton University Economist Survey; Farm Loans Being Restructured

From the Omaha World-Herald:



Weak farm income is affecting loans in the rural Midwest, according
to a survey of bankers in the region, as the rural economy declined for
the 13th straight month and the outlook leading into 2017 remains
dreary.

With grain prices slumping, Creighton University economist
Ernie Goss said, farm income is slated to drop by 12 percent from 2015,
prompting “an

Panic Grips Eastern U.S. With Gasoline Supply Shortage On Horizon

East coast panic? I'll tell you where there's panic.
Russia just blocked access to PornHub.*

That said, gasoline prices have jumped the last couple days:



FinViz

From OilPrice:

A gasoline pipeline that was shut down
for repairs after it leaked last week may threaten the regular supply
of the fuel for 50 million people in the eastern U.S. as the deadline
for its restart was postponed for

Tesla Responds in Spat With Former Partner Mobileye (MBLY; TSLA)

For folks catching up before the weekend, Tesla has decided to go with radar rather than LIDAR (laser light).
NVIDIA smiles.

From Reuters via Fortune:

Mobileye had said that it broke ties with Tesla over safety.



(Reuters) – Tesla Motors on Thursday said its former
camera supplier Mobileye disparaged the safety of Tesla’s assisted
driving technology Autopilot after learning the carmaker

"US farmland prices set course for third year of decline"

As we've been saying for years, most recently in February's "USDA Chief Economist Makes A Case For Farmland ":




It's too early.
Even though we think we'll see some upward price pressure [on crops] come late
summer, after a meandering downtrend, the reality of farmland investment
is that it is only worth a multiple of the cash flow.
(unless you're on the edge of a metro area and have some

Deutsche Bank: How Big A Hole Could A Fine Blow In The Balance Sheet?

Following up on "Deutsche Bank Is Asked to Pay $14 Billion to Resolve U.S. Probe Into Mortgage Securities (DB)".
From Breakingviews:

Smaller fine might still force Deutsche fire sale

A few billion dollars more or less can make a big difference to
Deutsche Bank’s future. The German lender insisted on Sept. 15 that it
wouldn’t pay nearly as much as the $14 billion (12.5 billion euro)

Crispin Odey Is Getting Crushed

From Business Insider:

Bubbles, unpopular politicians, and fighting the Fed: A $9 billion hedge fund just gave an epic excuse for poor performance

Crispin Odey is having a tough year.


His UK-based hedge fund is down about 35% this year through
August, according to an investor letter. The firm manages around
$8.9 billion.


And Odey is blaming central bankers, and in particular low

Going Cashless In Australia

From The Daily Reckoning:

Pablo & Rusty’s is a successful, Sydney based coffee roaster.
They have recently opened a new location in Brisbane where they are
trialling something different: they do not take cash.


The only accepted payment methods are credit cards, phones or smart
coffee cups —yes, those colourful cups with a chip that are springing at
coffee shops everywhere.


Wait, no cash

Thursday, September 15, 2016

"Deutsche Bank Is Asked to Pay $14 Billion to Resolve U.S. Probe Into Mortgage Securities" (DB)

After hours the stock is down 7% ($1.03) at $13.73.
From the Wall Street Journal:

Figure represents government’s opening bid; ultimate settlement could be much lower 

The U.S. Justice Department proposed that Deutsche Bank AG
pay $14 billion to settle a set of high-profile mortgage-securities
probes stemming from the financial crisis, according to people familiar
with the matter, a number

"What If Urban Sprawl Is the Only Realistic Way to Create Affordable Cities?"

From Real Time Economics:

Building suburbs makes cities more affordable than building towers, according to research released Wednesday




Building sprawling suburbs is better at making cities affordable than
building tall towers, according to research released Wednesday.


Environmentalists, urban planners and economists are pushing cities
such as New York and San Francisco to build more

The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity

Originally conceived by Professor (economic history) Carlo Cipolla, U Cal.-Berekley, d.2000.

The first basic law of human stupidity
The second basic law
The third (and golden) basic law
Frequency distribution
The power of stupidity
The fourth basic law
The fifth basic law


The first basic law of human stupidity asserts without ambiguity that: 




Always and inevitably everyone underestimates

"Tesla Sues Oil Industry Exec It Says Pretended To Be Elon Musk To Gain Secrets"

From Forbes:

As if figuring out what caused a SpaceX rocket to explode, pulling
off a merger with SolarCity and raising funds to complete a host of
ambitious Tesla Motors projects weren’t enough, Elon Musk appears to have yet another matter to resolve.


Tesla is suing an executive of an oil pipeline services company,
claiming that he tried to impersonate Musk in an email message. His
goal,

Shipping: "Mega-Ships May Be Too Big NOT to Fail"

From Bloomberg View:

It was always going to be tough for the world's container shipping
lines -- accustomed to decade after decade of growth in the volume of
video-game consoles, auto parts, furniture, frozen seafood and all
manner of other things transported in boxes across the sea -- to adjust
to a slowdown in global trade.

What has
made it a whole lot tougher is that, not long before

"Wall Street’s Insatiable Lust: Data, Data, Data"

We've been posting on the phenomena for a half-decade, since some ex-Google guys started collecting free-to-download weather data and figured the easiest way to make money off it was to peddle crop insurance. They ended up selling themselves to Monsanto for $930 million. Here's an overview of the opportunity from a few years ago:
McKinsey: Monetizing Freely Available Data Worth $3.2-$5.4Trillion

"Wall Street’s No Frills Investment Banker Sealed Monsanto-Bayer $66B Deal"

From Fox Business:

The announced mega merger between German chemical giant Bayer AG and U.S. pharmaceutical powerhouse Monsanto (MON)
has Wall Street buzzing about a banker who usually shuns the spotlight
but is a key player in some of the financial industry’s top deals.

That banker, Michael Kramer of Ducera Partners, served as Monsanto’s
lead adviser, and is credited with shaping the

Wednesday, September 14, 2016

World Out Of Whack: Aussie Banks

From Capitalist Exploits:

Market dislocations occur when financial markets, operating under
stressful conditions, experience large widespread asset mispricing.

Welcome to this week’s edition of “World Out Of Whack” where
every Wednesday we take time out of our day to laugh, poke fun at
and present to you absurdity in global financial markets in all it’s
glorious insanity.

While we enjoy a

"Wells Fargo’s Week Just Went From Bad To Preet" (WFC)

From DealBreaker:

We
are in day six of Wells Fargo’s precipitous fall from grace and it’s
beginning to seem like the bank is in a self-ideated nightmare without
end. And it just keeps getting scarier.


Revelations of bold, dumb and endemic fraud and turnover in its community banking division gave way to reports of oddly-timed golden “retirement” parachutes, gave way to announcements of

More Delivering Alpha Conference--Elliott Management's Paul Singer:"...sell long-term bonds is my outright recommendation"

From Pension Pulse:

Delivering Alpha 2016? 

 Patti Domm of CNBC reports, Bond yields spike as delivering alpha investors voice negative views:


Comments from major investors at the Delivering Alpha conference added
fuel to an already sour mood in markets and concerns that the world's
central banks just can't get it right.

"With the rates that currently exist in global bond markets, the

Market Folly's "Delivering Alpha Conference Notes 2016: Singer, Dalio, Chanos, Miller & More"

From Market Folly:

CNBC & Institutional Investor's Delivering Alpha Conference is underway and below are some notes.  This post will be updated throughout the day as the various speakers/panels are ongoing:

Delivering Alpha Conference Notes 2016

Paul Singer (Elliott Associates):  Said that it's a "very
dangerous time in global markets" right now.  Argued central bank
independence doesn't